Why did Putin send a third-rate delegation to Turkey for talks with Ukraine?
Why did its leader voice clearly unacceptable and completely unrealistic demands?
It is obvious that the Russians were clearly not in the mood for constructive negotiations, and therefore there is no point in paraphrasing the statements of the members of the Russian delegation, let alone analyzing their position. Most likely, Putin set them the task of diverting attention from the main problem, bluffing and stalling.
It is hard to say why he does this and what goal he wants to achieve with this maneuver.
At the same time, all the bravado of the Russian president and his propagandists can hardly hide the fact that the lack of more or less significant success on the Russian-Ukrainian front means that the goals of the so-called special military operation have not been and will not be achieved.
It is also well known that this war is depleting human, financial and logistical resources of not only Ukraine but also Russia.
Even if we assume that the Russian Federation today has 140 million citizens, although their actual number is much less, this number of human resources is clearly not enough to conquer Ukraine. Moreover, very soon it may happen that they will no longer be enough to protect the vast territory of Russia itself.
If political forces appear in the Russian Federation that are dissatisfied with the results of the war with Ukraine, and separatist movements intensify, particularly in the North Caucasus, then Russia will no longer be in the mood for conquering Ukraine.
It is quite possible that a political situation similar to that of 1917 may arise in Russia. It is known that the events of those years ended with the collapse of the Russian Empire and the formation of a number of independent states on its ruins. If you look at the political map of Europe in 1918, you will see that in its East, in addition to Ukraine, the Great Don Army and the Kuban People’s Republic were formed, and the peoples of the North Caucasus created a kind of confederation called the Mountain Republic.
The main reason for the collapse of the Russian Empire was its defeat in World War I, and the current political situation in Russia is very similar to that of a century ago. Despite the fact that Putin and his propagandists proclaim bravura things and declare their readiness to fight indefinitely, they are clearly bluffing.
It is obvious that every day of war exhausts not only Ukraine but also Russia. That is why both sides are interested in establishing a truce today, as their armies need to rest, recover and regroup. However, for some reason, the Russian side continues to behave aggressively and irrationally, although it is in a far worse position, and its bellicose rhetoric has long since ceased to frighten anyone.
Today, Russia is only saved from complete defeat in the war with Ukraine by the loyalty of US President Donald Trump, who for some reason decided that Russia could become the ally of America in its confrontation with China.
At the same time, it is worth noting that Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Poland are increasingly dissatisfied with this war. Turkey takes a similar position. If Russia continues to stubbornly insist on its own way and does not give up its absurd demands, and Europe and Turkey begin to interact more actively with Ukraine, the Russian Federation will certainly be defeated. As a result, new military-political alliances and blocs may soon appear at the regional level, which will create conditions for ensuring long-term peace and stability in the region and compensate for all the losses due to the USA’s actual abandonment of the leadership in the global democratic world.
Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute for Global Politics
